Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
