Under a radiant sunset in Memphis in May, an environmental advocate pointed a heat-sensing device at a flagship datacentre to expose a environmental hazard that was invisible. Lacking emissions regulations, the natural gas generators fueling an enormous AI supercomputers were releasing undetectable emissions into the Tennessee sky.
“I was completely stunned,” commented the observer, who believes the facility was emitting more planet-heating gas than a sizeable energy plant. “Just an unbelievable amount of pollution.”
That same week, the facility’s core product was spreading across news feeds, echoing false narratives and generating false claims. Observers have cited generated images of offensive characters as an example of what natural gas was being consumed to produce. “What is the actual benefit here?”
Others echo this sentiment in raising this issue. Experts are observing the AI boom with unease as it pollutes the planet with emissions and the information ecosystem with dangers ranging from false wellness advice to synthetic explicit media.
Some experts fear datacentres may hinder the transition to a low-carbon future, adding an major challenge to the difficult goal of keeping the planet from heating beyond critical thresholds. Others are sanguine about the energy costs, arguing they seem minor not just to traditional heavy industries, but also to the technology’s capacity to transform our world.
The Exponential Energy Hunger
While Hannah Daly ran models for an global energy body, she spent little time worrying about the carbon cost of computers. Cars, cows and home heating were among the knotty problems consuming the carbon budget.
But in a specific country, the computational hunger has reached levels that are impossible to ignore. Datacentres use one-fifth of the country’s electricity and are expected to devour nearly one-third within a few years. The fast growth of these computing facilities has outpaced the electricity grid's capacity, leading to restrictions on new grid connections.
“The trajectory of huge, accelerating increase is what is so worrying,” said Daly. “It's unclear whether this is a real outlier or a precursor of what’s to come. But it’s definitely a warning story.”
Internationally, datacentres consume approximately one percent of the world’s electricity but may soon consume a greater share. Their percentage of electricity demand in major economies is estimated to more than double by 2035. Some demand is being met through long-term agreements to buy renewable power, while some tech firms have signed deals to use atomic power.
But for the foreseeable future, non-renewable sources are set to dominate supply. In some regions, datacentres are clustered in areas reliant on coal-heavy power generation. In others, political support has framed them as justification for burning more coal. “This idea that the lower cost of renewables alone will drive decarbonisation – this is inadequate,” said Daly. “Since when there’s a huge source of energy demand that wants to grow, it will land on these idling power plants.”
Evaluating the Climate Impact of a Query
Does utilizing chatbots to write essays endanger the planet? Tech companies have hesitated to provide detailed data on their AI energy footprints, but rough calculations hover around a small amount of energy for a simple text query, increasing significantly for more complex tasks. One CEO recently claimed a typical AI query uses as little energy as running a lightbulb for a couple of minutes.
These numbers are negligible compared to activities such as air travel, eating meat, or driving a car. Nevertheless, critics worry about the enormous size of the technology – with hundreds of millions of weekly users – and the enthusiasm with which companies have shoved it into every aspect of digital life. The rise of background services is expected to add to the background hum.
“What I’m worried about is that we’re rolling out this technology in such a way that we are not fully aware of the energy use,” said a climate lead at an AI company. “The current approach is on the assumption that it’s not a problem – or that if it is a problem it will somehow be solved – instead of proactively addressing it.”
The Possible for Positive Impact
What if AI could pay off its energy debts by reducing emissions in other parts of the economy? That is the thesis put forward in several reports, which argued existing AI applications could cut emissions by far more than datacentres produced. Researchers have modelled scenarios in which AI would help to optimize clean power, identify alternative proteins, improve energy storage tech and guide behavior toward climate-friendly choices.
“AI can accelerate the deployment of those clean technologies by basically accelerating their position along the curve of development and use,” said a policy fellow involved in the research.
The projected carbon savings carry significant caveats – greater efficiency can lead to more use, and secondary impacts may undercut the gains. But instances already exist. Some companies report AI has helped optimize thermal management in datacentres by a significant percentage. Energy firms say AI has enhanced wind turbine maintenance and performance, increasing output. Solar farm operators have reduced downtime by using AI to detect faults.
Because other sectors are so high-emission, researchers say, AI would only need to cut their emissions by a tiny percentage to cover the carbon cost of its computing. “For energy generation we are already seeing the results,” said one researcher. “Whereas other sectors are not there yet.”
The Other Side: Enabling Fossil Fuels
Clean tech advocates are not the only ones to have noticed AI’s transformative potential. The fossil fuel industry is also a major adopter. Some former tech employees have expressed concern over their companies' work for oil and gas clients, arguing it enables more emissions than the tech sector produces itself. Partnerships have been announced with major oil companies, with the potential to expand production and streamline exploration.
Industry estimates suggest AI could boost accessible oil and gas reserves and cut project costs. Industry leaders have stated that AI is embedded “in everything” and has increased productivity, leading to more drilling activity. The oil and gas industry also argues AI can cut its operational footprint, for instance by analysing data to spot methane leaks. But critics say there is a disconnect between digital insights and corporate actions.
“This is being utilized as an excuse to postpone meaningful steps,” said one campaigner. “Monitoring methane from space is not preventing methane.”
Perhaps even more worrying than the expansion of fossil fuel supply is the effect on consumption. Generative AI has been shown to create highly effective advertisements, and the ease of production slashes the cost of driving demand. The marketing industry is preparing for AI agents that could make decisions on a customer’s behalf.
“The prevailing story is really focused on this false comparison between the energy used to run the technology and the positive use cases,” said a campaigner. “But it is risky to omit the negative use cases.”
Calls for Pause and Regulation
A number of experts are calling to hit pause, at least until better rules are in place. International bodies and coalitions of environmental groups have called for a moratorium on new datacentre development, citing damaging environmental impacts. Some national regulators have imposed conditions, requiring that a large majority of a datacentre’s power must eventually come from new renewable projects.
Others have called to incentivize the industry to do good. A few countries have started to include AI in climate legislation, obliging governments to promote digitalisation that aids decarbonisation. There have also been suggestions to create a fund to generate resources needed for climate action.
Some campaigners are pushing for upcoming regulations to classify certain high-emission applications of AI as concerning. They also want investors to consider indirect climate impacts when evaluating companies.
In response to concerns, some AI companies have stated they give considerable thought to the optimal application of computing power, support sustainability goals, and believe AI will be instrumental in tackling climate change. Other tech firms argue the energy transition is complex and requires a balanced approach, with technology playing an important role in helping industries decarbonize.
One researcher concluded that, rather than panic, people should pressure companies to make tools that are energy-efficient from the start.
“Perhaps I am too hopeful, but I still believe that AI can be a force for good in terms of fighting the climate crisis – inventing the next generation of batteries, monitoring deforestation, predicting hurricanes,” she said. “There are so many good things for which we can be using it – and instead we’re creating digital spaces filled with frivolous outputs while datacentres are getting powered by fossil fuel plants.”
